Bro Emlyn for Peace and Justice - Cardigan Group

Cardigan Area Stop the War Group

The War in Iraq - What next?

The war in Iraq may be drawing to a close. It may appear to have been successful. Many people in Iraq, in the Middle East and in the world may be pleased that the brutal dictator Saddam Hussein is no longer in power.

But what have been the longer term costs of this ‘success'? What is the damage?

The world is now a place in which:

there is a precedent for pre-emptive strikes – one country being attacked because it might possibly be a threat, rather than because it has actually attacked another.
this act, which is illegal according to international law, has been ‘vindicated'. This increases the danger of the use of ‘gunboat diplomacy' in the future.
the USA now has the confidence to attack other nations for its own ends, perhaps with Tony Blair's support again. Neo-imperialism is now accepted as being part of USA and UK's foreign policy. The USA hints that Syria, Iran or North Korea may be next.
the United Nations – ideally a form of democratic world government working for peace – has been ignored and by-passed by nations which felt strong enough militarily (the USA and UK) – these are the tactics of bullies.
the Arab world, much of it previously hostile to Saddam's brutality, is now far more united in hostile feelings to the USA and UK.
many Arabs have developed a deeper hatred of the West, which is likely to greatly increase terrorist attacks, as well as further destabilising the Middle East.
the widely accepted international partnership or ‘coalition against terrorism' has disintegrated. Europe has become divided.
all future dictators (and other governments) will believe that the best way to defend themselves is to develop weapons of mass destruction.

Deaths, injuries and losses:

By 3/4/03 well over 1,000 Iraqi civilians had been killed, and well over 5,000 injured – at least half of these likely to be children. USA and UK use of depleted uranium and cluster bombs will cause many more deaths, injuries and illness long after the war.
By 11/4/03, many (over 100) UK and USA troops and civilians had been killed, and Iraqi troop losses were estimated at 4,000.
As a direct result of the war, over 1,500,000 Iraqis have no access to clean water, and 17 million have lost the food aid on which they were dependent. Health experts expect that in 3 months 50,000 to 250,000 people may die due to the dire state of the infrastructure after 12 years of sanctions followed by the war; over half will be children. Civil unrest or civil war may also break out as a result of the war.

In terms of money:

The USA has put aside $80 billion to wage this war, and the UK has given over £3 billion.These sums do not include any money needed for reconstruction costs in Iraq after the war.
Both governments will be setting aside huge sums of money to bring in more security measures at home to combat the increased terrorist attacks which are now expected.
This money could be better spent on alleviating poverty throughout the world as well as on better services at home.

So what can we do now?

Admit that the UK and USA acted illegally and immorally in starting this war.
Condemn illegal military action without UN approval.
Condemn illegal pre-emptive strikes.
Challenge the concept that warfare is a legitimate means of conducting a state's foreign policy.
Work for international justice where rich and powerful states cannot protect and further their own interests at the expense of poorer countries with less military power.
Work for a fair resolution to the Isreali/Palestinian conflict.
Introduce humanitarian aid into Iraq urgently to alleviate the civilian health and welfare catastrophe.
Strengthen the role of the United Nations.

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